The case for silver in your Golden IRA may be best explained by the following factors, which we believe will contribute to a rising silver price:
1. The level of above-ground stockpiles of silver has reached historically low levels due to 15+ years of accumulated supply deficits. There is today, less silver above ground than there is gold.
2. Two decades of declining silver prices have led to extreme underinvestment in new mines.
3. Silver supply is inelastic. 70% of silver supply comes from primary zinc and copper mines. Only 30% is from primary silver mines. Base metal mines will not base output decisions on the price of silver (unless it were to go much, much higher.)
4. Silver demand is inelastic. In the industrial uses of silver, the price of the silver contained in a final good is typically a tiny fraction of the production costs. A 10 times increase in the silver price will not cause industrial users to stop buying it, because they have no substitutes. Demand for silver jewelry and silver-ware may slacken at higher prices, but is likely to be more than offset by increasing investment demand. Investment demand, somewhat counter-intuitively, will increase as the price increases.
5. Barclay's silver ETF (introduced on the AMEX in 2006) has lead to a flood of new money into silver.
6. A continuing falling U.S. dollar will cause hard assets to appreciate in dollar terms. The dollar must ultimately fall, due to the record trade deficit and debt levels (public and private). The dollar has lost over 60% of it's value against the EURO since January 1, 2002.
7. In a financial collapse or stock market crash, which it is believed has a good chance of happening as the housing market continues it's downward trend over the next couple of years, money will flow into hard assets, precious metals in particular. Silver and gold both benefit significantly in this scenario.
8. Modernization of China and other third-world economies, combined with rising standards of living will lead to continued demand pressure on commodity prices (in particular metals) for the next 20 years.
9. Silver, when viewed in inflation-adjusted terms, is still trading near all-time lows, even after rising more than 200% since 2001.
10. Silver is historically cheap compared to gold, and compared to oil.
~ Conclusion ~ At some point, we believe silver will rise above $50.00 and eventually above $100. (There are even some, who believe that silver will reach nearly $200. per ounce before this run is over.) This process will most likely take several years to play out, although we're starting to see signs that the fun is beginning. Today, at $13.50, the price of silver has moved up very fast, but it is not at a level considered risky for the long-term.
No market moves straight up, and one should expect corrections along the way. Silver recently reached nearly $15 and then corrected to $13. Next it could spike to $25 and correct to $17. An investment in silver must be viewed from a perspective of a several year hold with an understanding that the fundamentals will ultimately demand much higher prices. Not 50% or 100% higher - multiples higher - from 5 to 10 times or more.
As the silver story becomes more widely known, more and more investors will attempt to capitalize on it. When this happens, don't be among the hordes of people rushing to buy silver at $150.00 per oz. - be one of the few selling it to them.
We hope that this information will be helpful in your decision to place some silver threads amongst your Golden needles! |